TELECOMMUNICATIONS Dethrones Computer Systems

Pakistanis are a peculiar species when it comes to almost every aspect of life. Take choosing careers for instance. The moment a new career sprouts up with potential for high-paid jobs, a gold rush starts which is probably unprecedented in the entire world. Institute of Business Administration, popularly called the IBA, has been around since 1955, associated with the distinguished Wharton School of Finance and Commerce at the University of Pennsylvania; one which is credited for churning out CEOs(that are ruling the world by proxy) by the dozen. And yet only a handful ventured there. The perception was: who needs to get a degree in business? It is something to be learned in the field, not in a classroom. The medical and engineering sector was the darling of the nation at that time. But then out of the blue came the MBA trend and IBA began to be worshipped reverently. “MBA Universities” began springing up in each gulley nala of the country. If you threw a stone randomly, 9 out 10 times it would hit a so-called MBA. Then the all too famous IT rush began and consumed the nation more rapidly than the previous one.

Now there’s no denying the fact that these phenomena were more or less synonymous with the world trends. But the intensity and stupidity of what was happening (and still is) was unparalleled elsewhere. Take the case of this guy who came up to me for advice as to which career he should choose. I asked him what he loves doing. He replied sketching. Then when I further queried him, he revealed that he was fascinated by architecture and stuff and had considered applying for the architectural program at NED. I asked what’s stopping him, and he delved into the all too familiar droning that it was not a financially viable profession these days and that computers was where the money was. I replied by asking him didn’t he know that the architects and civil engineers are one of the highest paid people in the engineering profession. He said he knew that but it was all in the past. I asked why is that? Have buildings stopped being built? He didn’t look convinced. I then began a lengthy lecture about how much life is bitter and from now on he’ll have to spend more than half his life working. So why not do something in which you are genuinely interested and can easily bear for the rest of your life. Then there’s the dilemma of competition. If you venture into a field which is ready to burst at it’s seams, chances are you are gonna face cutthroat competition, and finding a dream job in these conditions is going to be tough, unless you are damn good at it. So why not do something for which you have the aptitude and can carve out a unique niche for yourself? He still didn’t look convinced, and as he left, I had the sinking feeling that he was going to jump onto that about-to-be-doomed bandwagon.

This guy easily personifies the uncertainty and the lack of common sense amongst our youth. They are eager to jump into the well if everyone is following suit, without questioning what they are going to get out of it. And it isn’t as if the average Joe and Jane have this line of thinking. The ‘cream’ of the young intellectuals is into it as well without even a semblance of common sense.

While I was waiting for my interview at KU for the B.S. program, I struck up a conversation with a guy who was my fellow Adamjian, though I didn’t know him back then. He had scored 84% in the Intermediate and had applied for Computer Systems program at NED. I knew almost everyone having a score in that region was doing the same blindly. I asked him why did he chose that program of all the others. He looked at me like I was some sort of inconsequential being and replied, “Because I like computers”. I didn’t have the stamina to argue with him that it was a dead-end career as far as Pakistan is concerned. Not many knew that back then, and even those that did, just followed the others thinking if so many intelligent people are hooking up to it, something good would surely come out of it.

But how did this chain reaction start? The thing is, in the 90s when there started revolutionary advances in computer technology with Intel churning out processors with double the computing power than the previous almost every other year; most of the top dogs that came out of college each year, bedazzled by these surrealistic developments, started applying to the Computer engineering (hardware) degree program at NED. One thing led to another and before anyone realized it, in Ned especially, to award admissions on merit the percentage required had climbed to above 80%. That meant a sort of an elite class was created, and everyone getting an A-one grade wanted to be associated with it. So it was more of a question of honor rather than interest in the field that got people to opt for it. That’s how myopic our future intelligentsia is. But the bubble burst sooner than later. Telecommunications now ranks number one choice for the aspiring candidates followed by Electronics and Electrical. Computer engineering ranks a pathetic fourth. It just ceases to be elite all of a sudden. And most of those that chose it are now facing the harsh reality, which was evident even then but was shrouded by their own prejudice. The thing is, Pakistan is solely a computer consumer. There’s hardly any production, let alone research, going on here apart from a few like Inbox Business Technologies which is manufacturing local branded computers. Microsoft has decided to put a plant here now but even that is going to be in Lahore. The only places of interest are the local software houses but even those require mostly software engineers. The only viable option is to go abroad for higher studies and stay put there.

Now coming back to the situation prevailing at NED, although Telecommunication rules the roost at the moment, there’s no telling what twist and turn it may take in the future ala IT. Even Electronics and Electrical engineers are finding it extremely hard to make a living. The electronics group is still doing relatively better because there are no Telecommunications specialists coming out of the universities as yet, so the electronics ones are the best bet for the companies like Mobilink, Instaphone, and Ufone. And now two licenses have been awarded (the most lucrative in the history of this country) to two new contenders who’ll start operations probably in a year. Initially, everyone was saying that Vodafone was certain to penetrate into the local market, but it seems like these two new kids on the block outbid Vodafone. So while the competition is heating up, so is the job market for Telecommunication engineers. But I wouldn’t put my money on the initial few batches churning out from NED, for Ned has a habit of starting a degree program first and then catering to the needs of the students. Teachers come and go at the blink of an eye. The Electronics department at the beginning didn’t even have proper labs. There is a consistent haphazard way of doing things in there.

How well the Telecommunications sector (and in turn the Tele engineers) fares in Pakistan will depend as much on the public demand as on the prevailing economic conditions. In India for instance, there’s a very definite growing demand for telecommunications capabilities. The integration of multimedia is the most decisive factor for this. The gaming industry for mobiles in India is estimated to be worth billions of dollars! So the software and telecommunications sector are providing each other’s bread. But all this depends on more computing power to handle efficiently the increasingly sophisticated 3-D games as well as high- quality audio. So things will go from good to better once the prices for high-end cell phones come down drastically.

The Pakistani market lags far behind India even in this sector. And this isn’t because Pakistan is home to a meager 159 million souls while India to a staggering 1.08 billion people, though it does play a part. The thing is, right now in Pakistan, a respectable all-purpose cell phone costs anywhere between Rs. 15,000-25,000. That’s quite expensive by local standards. But people have been so caught on in the mobile frenzy that those (mostly youth) who can’t afford to buy these devices somehow manage to save enough money to get them. Trouble starts after they have bought them, and it’s the current lawlessness which holds the key to all this. The thing is, most of the people who do manage to buy these costly things travel by public transport, and there’s a very high probability of getting mugged. In fact the other day a friend of mine got mugged in broad daylight in a crowd bazaar just because of his mobile. In fact the mugger was gracious enough to return his sim and he just took the set. Imagine that; this scoundrel has enough time to take out the chip and hand it back to my friend and then walks away calmly for all to see. In this pathetic environment people are wary of buying costly cells to avoid getting mugged. This is a very real danger to the growth of the sector.

Then take the case of PTCL. This lethargic giant has helped no one by dragging on with its monopolistic shenanigans. Leave ISPs and other private firms dealing with it aside, even the public doesn’t trust PTCL in the least bit. Take the case of the recent decision by PTCL to make local call free from 12 am to 6 am. Now they may have taken that decision in good faith to show their sincerity, but rumors are doing the rounds that this is just another trick to entrap people into making more calls during this period so that more revenue can be generated. And no one can find out since there’s no record a local call. But the most popular is that the calls are free for the first 15 minutes, then they start being charged as usual. So in order to beat the system, you talk for 15 minutes, hang up, call and talk for another 15 minutes and so on. So people generally are wary of this suddenly sugary approach of the PTCL, which shows the extent of distrust between these two. And PTCL is to blame for all this. Companies are eager to get into our Tele- market and would have made great strides by now had it not been for the evasive policies of the government.

Considering everything, the telecommunications in Pakistan is pointing in the right direction, but whether it does move ahead in that direction or changes course midway, remains to be seen. In the current environment it is a bit of a risk venturing into this field. My advice: go for it by all means but once you’ve established that you’ve the aptitude for this kind of work, for if you’ve don’t have that; you’re going to get burned out pretty soon, prosperity or no prosperity.